【Ghost City Opening】CBD Empty, Only Three of Us Left
April 20, 2020, 8:40 PM, 49th floor of a skyscraper in Marina Bay Financial Centre.
Marcus stood by the floor-to-ceiling windows, looking down at the silent financial heart of the city. Raffles Place was eerily quiet, OCBC Centre completely dark, Marina Bay Sands stood like a lonely giant in the night sky. Even Funan’s rooftop had no electric scooter teenagers tonight, and Bayfront was pitch black. The usual buzz of the CBD had been killed by COVID-19. The entire city was in lockdown, but on the 49th floor, three screens still flickered with numbers from the other side of the world.
In normal times, this floor would be buzzing with at least thirty traders. Tonight, it felt like a mausoleum.
The card reader beeped, and Alvin walked in carrying Qi Ji takeaway bags.
“I’m back! Walao eh, queue damn long okay, but I still got for you all.”
During the pandemic, most colleagues were working from home. The massive trading floor was down to just the three of us pulling night shifts.
Alvin started unpacking the food. “Aiyah your mee rebus again.” He handed Desmond the soup container. “Later eat liao stomach pain, don’t come crying hor.”
Desmond took his noodles and pulled out his own herbal tea: “Better than your heart attack chicken wing lah. Front office people all MIA already, left us night shift kena all the calls.”
Marcus opened his nasi lemak container, the extra sambal glistening red under the office lights. He took a bite: “Still not spicy enough.”
“Wah bro you trying to burn your tongue or what?” Alvin laughed, unwrapping his popiah. “Desmond still in toilet?”
“Yeah, says stomach not good.” Alvin sat down with his nasi lemak and barley water. “What’s the price now?”
“$16.89. Opened at $18.27, dropped again.”
Alvin shook his head. “Walao, this kind of drop…”
Desmond emerged from the washroom, walking to his station. “Siao, still falling.”
The three of us settled into our positions, eating dinner. During lockdown, most food courts closed early, but Qi Ji stayed open for the night shift workers.
“By the way,” Marcus said between bites, “I bought a QM straddle two weeks ago.”
“Oh? Betting on volatility?” Alvin nodded. “How now?”
“Small profit. Put side moved into the money already.”
Desmond raised an eyebrow. “Wah Marcus, you think you market god ah? Your luck not bad hor. Our clients here crying like baby already.”
Marcus shrugged: “Please lah, just lucky only. Later kena margin call then you see me cry also.”
Alvin grinned: “Eh don’t need act humble one lah. You eat your sambal like no tomorrow still got profit. We stress until want vomit, you here shiok sendiri (*enjoying yourself).”
Desmond suddenly spoke up: “Let me ask you guys something…”
“What?”
“You think today oil price will drop to single digits or not?”
Alvin nearly choked on his barley water. “Single digits? Walao (*exclamation of disbelief) bro, you think too much lah. Oil however bad, also won’t go below $10 one.”
“Also true…” Desmond scratched his head. “But institutions all ran already leh (*particle for emphasis). Now left behind all retail traders hor. They think picking up cheap bargains, bo bian lor (*no choice).”
Just as he finished speaking, Alvin’s phone rang.
“Hello…”
“Xiao Wang! I want to buy crude oil! This price is practically free money!”
Alvin glanced at Marcus, who nodded. Another Jacky from Jurong type – always adding positions when market crashes.
“Mr Zhang, market very unstable now…”
“Scared for what? $16 per barrel, whole world needs oil. Let me buy 10 contracts! You locked the price or not?”
After hanging up, Alvin shook his head. “Another one trying to catch knife. Compliance call me this morning already, say we never disclose properly. Plus MAS starting to ask about positions lah (Monetary Authority of Singapore checking).”
【Market Alert】Oil Falls Below $10 — Panic Selling Triggered
11:56 PM, the screen flashed $10.1.
“Broke ten already.” Desmond’s voice was slightly hoarse.
“From $18 to $10, cut in half.” Alvin was handling client calls. “Walao this kind of drop…”
Marcus (murmuring to himself): “From $18 to $10… in less than four hours.”
Marcus glanced at his straddle positions, secretly pleased—the Put had moved deep in the money already. But this drop really exceeded everyone’s expectations. Company positions were safe though; they cleared all CL longs two weeks ago.
Desmond’s phone rang: “Mr Wang… what? You still want add more? Aiyah (*expression of exasperation) cannot one lah sir, May contracts bo bian (*no choice) already, don’t allow retail entry, you can only buy June… what? You ask why? Because tomorrow is last trading day already mah…”
Desmond looked at Marcus, who smiled bitterly and nodded. Exchange already restricted retail from building positions in soon-to-expire contracts, but these clients blur like sotong (*confused like squid), don’t understand these rules.
Desmond (voice hoarse after hanging up): “Clients calling non-stop… damn. Even heard TradeHub sixteenth floor also having emergency meeting hor (apparently).”
In this moment, no one dared to say it out loud — but all three felt the same chill:
This isn’t just a crash. This is something else entirely.
12:11 AM, $9.99.
“Single digits already.” Desmond muttered while handling his phone.
Alvin suddenly spoke up: “Eh, let’s make one bet?”
“What bet?” Desmond and Marcus both turned.
“Bet oil price will hit zero or not. I bet will.” Alvin pointed at screen. “You see this drop, cannot stop already.”
Desmond thought for moment: “I bet won’t. How can oil really become zero? Must have some bottom line.”
Marcus looked at $9.99 on screen: “I also bet won’t. Although now looks damn crazy.”
Trading room fell into strange rhythm: phone rings, keyboard clicking, numbers constantly jumping on screens.
【The Final Dollar】When Reality Started Breaking
1:50 AM, $1.
“One dollar left.” Desmond’s voice trembling, phone still in hand.
Alvin also on call: “Oil one dollar per barrel… I know sounds gila (*crazy), but sir, May contracts already stopped retail buying, you can only trade June lah…”
Marcus stopped what he was doing. All three pairs of eyes stared at the screen. This had already exceeded everyone’s cognitive range.
Marcus (inner voice): One fucking dollar. For oil. What universe are we living in?
【History’s First】When Physics Laws Failed
1:56 AM, $0.08.
“8 cents…” Desmond hung up his phone, voice barely audible.
“Alvin, your bet almost winning already.” Marcus stared at that number approaching zero.
2:08 AM, $0.01.
“Last one cent.” Alvin pointed excitedly at screen. “I going to win!”
Desmond nervously watched the number: “Not zero yet… still got hope…”
Phone rings at $0.01
Marcus picked up: “Hello?”
Ethan (hyper-excited): “喂！Marcus！你睇到未？一仙啦！我從來冇見過咁嘅跌法！我而家whole body都係震緊！” (Hey! Marcus! You see or not? One cent! I’ve never seen this kind of drop! My whole body is shaking!)
Marcus (switching to Cantonese): “睇緊啊…真係…” (Watching… really…)
Ethan: “屌你哋仲做緊單？我哋今晚冇乜嘢郁啦，齋睇都震撼。” (Fuck you guys still trading? We got nothing much to do tonight, just watching already shocking.)
Marcus: “咁你咪好，我哋呢邊啲客戶打到爆炸。” (Then you’re lucky, our clients here calling until explode.)
Ethan: “話晒都係歷史一刻，今晚唔睇，幾時再有得睇？我聽住啲order flow係咁刷，好似鬼上身咁樣。” (After all it’s a historical moment, if don’t watch tonight, when will we get to watch again? I’m listening to the order flow keep flashing, like possessed by ghost.)
Then, numbers on screen started flashing.
2:09 AM, the number changed.
$0.00
“FUCK! Zero already!” Marcus shouted, still holding the phone.
“Walao eh! Really zero liao!” Alvin jumped up. “I won! But… shit sia!”
Ethan (through phone): “屌！真係變零？我X，從來冇見過！” (Fuck! Really became zero? Holy shit, never seen this before!)
Desmond stared at screen: “Chee bye… impossible…”
But Marcus suddenly froze, terrible thought flashing through his mind: “Wait… Ethan, trading still continuing…”
“What you mean?” Desmond asked.
Marcus’s voice started trembling: “Market not closed yet… if no one willing to bid, but still got people want to sell…”
Ethan (through phone): “咩話？仲有得跌？” (What? Can still drop?)
Three people looked at each other.
2:09:13, the number jumped again.
-$0.2
BEEP BEEP BEEP – System alert sounds
“WHAT THE FUCK…” Marcus’s eyes widened. “This number…”
“Negative? SHIT!” Alvin’s voice cracked, his earlier excitement vanishing instantly.
Ethan (screaming through phone): “負數？屌你老母！呢個…” (Negative? Fuck your mother! This…)
BEEP BEEP BEEP – Multiple system alerts blaring
Marcus: “Shit, Ethan, system going crazy, I gotta go—”
Hangs up the phone
Desmond frantically pressed F5: “Still negative… jialat liao (*we’re in trouble), all our models never predicted this kind of situation.”
“What this means? This damn impossible lah!” Alvin completely confused already. “Macam kena tipu sia (*like being cheated)!”
“Means…” Marcus swallowed hard, “now oil sellers paying people to take away the oil.”
Three people stared at each other, as if they just witnessed physics laws collapse.
【21 Minutes of Hell】When the World Lost Its Mind
【Market Update】Oil Price Enters Freefall — Negative Territory Expanding
The next 21 minutes were pure madness.
Numbers on screen began unprecedented free fall:
-$4.96… -$8… -$13.98…
Alvin and Desmond’s phones rang non-stop.
“Sir, system not broken, oil price really negative…” Alvin explaining while looking at Marcus. “Aiyah I also dunno what happening leh (particle indicating uncertainty)…”
Meanwhile, Marcus’s desk phone started ringing too.
“Hello?”
“Marcus? This is David from Deutsche. What the hell is happening to your oil market?” An angmo (Western) banker’s voice, clearly panicked.
“David, we’re all trying to figure out. Never seen anything like this.”
“But how can price be negative? Is this real?”
“Real as the screen in front of me. I’ll call you back.”
Marcus hung up and looked at his colleagues.
Desmond still on phone, maintaining his composure: “Mr Wang, situation very complicated now… what? You still want to buy? Sir, I told you May contracts already closed for retail, now only institutions fighting each other… what? Mini ones? Yes, QM still can buy, but… I just hedged whole position also cannot save, this already beyond normal market expectations lor (particle for emphasis).”
-$22.23…
Marcus suddenly realized something, looking at screen with numbers jumping crazily.
-$25.28…
“How?” Desmond noticed Marcus’s expression.
“My straddle positions…” Marcus looked at his trading account, “probably made one year bonus.”
-$30…
Alvin answering phone while staring at Marcus: “So we witnessing end of world, you counting bonus? Gila (*crazy) already lah…”
“Aiyah I also blur (*confused) lah…” Marcus smiled bitterly, “who would think things become like this? Damn siao one (*crazy thing).”
-$35… -$39.5…
2:29 AM, numbers stopped at -$40.32.
Office suddenly quiet. All three slumped in their chairs.
“-40 dollars…” Desmond’s voice almost inaudible, calmly analyzing: “We just now still discussing whether will hit zero… this already completely overturned traditional value theory leh (*particle for emphasis).”
Alvin pointed at screen, speechless: “So it dropped to negative 40, down 320%, what kind of gila (*crazy) logic is this?” Then he burst out laughing. “We all siao (*crazy) already or what? Macam (*like) watching horror movie sia (*particle for emphasis)!”
No one answered.
2:30:49, after trading ended.
The frozen quote finally jumped to show final transaction.
“Ding” – screen number stuck at -$40.08, like nailed there.
Marcus got up from his chair, looked at screen, glanced at his trading account, then stared out at the dead Singapore night skyline. He opened the window — a wave of warm, humid air rolled in from the sea. The city was still, but the air was thick, heavy, almost refusing to move.
The waters outside the harbor were choked with oil tankers — motionless leviathans anchored in place.
Suddenly shouted: “FUCK! Made it big! What the hell did I just witness?”
Air silent for few seconds, only air-con humming.
Then, Desmond slowly spoke:
“History,” Desmond said slowly, looking out at Marina Bay’s night view. “We just witnessed theory bankruptcy… maybe also beginning of global economic collapse.”
He paused, then continued: “We always thought being a financial hub meant something real… but if prices can become negative, if value can implode overnight, then maybe… we’re just dancing around shadows. Numbers without substance. Symbols without anchors.”
Marcus didn’t reply. The screens had stopped flickering, but in his head, the numbers kept falling.
When dawn slowly appeared, this world was no longer yesterday’s world.
In this financial hub that always prides itself on being safe, efficient, and buffered from chaos — we had just watched the world implode, right from the 49th floor. Singapore, the little red dot that dreamed of being the Switzerland of Asia, had witnessed something that even Switzerland’s bankers probably never imagined.
【Autopsy】When Sun Rises, We Need Answers
When sun lit up Singapore streets, Marcus found himself needing to answer one question: what exactly happened?
He knew those numbers on screen had become history, but to understand all this, couldn’t rely only on witnesses’ shock.
Let’s go back to that black night, analyze from technical perspective this unprecedented financial tsunami. This wasn’t science fiction – this was bloody reality when futures market system design collided with extreme market conditions.
How Negative Oil Prices Work: Perfect Storm of Institutional Slaughter
CL Contract Death Countdown Mechanism
NYMEX Light Crude Oil Futures (CL) May contract’s last trading day was April 21. But the key point: this was physical delivery contract.
Unlike STI futures which are cash-settled, CL contracts at expiry must receive actual crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma. Each contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil, and according to contract specifications, buyers must send trucks to designated locations to collect the oil.
Problem was: retail speculators had no trucks, no oil tanks, no refineries.
Storage Crisis: When Cushing Became Ghost Town
April 2020, global pandemic caused oil demand to plummet, but production didn’t reduce synchronously. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, Cushing’s working storage capacity was about 76 million barrels, but with massive oil inflows and demand collapse, entire oil storage system faced unprecedented crisis.
Oil everywhere, everything full!
Storage facilities full, oil tanks full, tank trucks full, oil trains full, even backup barrels almost overflowing. Cushing, this “pipeline crossroads of the world,” became giant parking lot, with trucks and trains loaded with crude oil queuing, but nowhere to unload.
Market even heard rumors:
- Storage companies started refusing new crude oil deliveries
- Floating oil storage ship rental costs skyrocketed
- Some even considered dumping oil into abandoned mine pits
Key insight: When whole world had no place to store oil, oil was no longer asset, but hot potato.
Last Trading Day Closure Mechanism
Critical detail: From April 20 afternoon, major futures brokers successively restricted retail trading of CL May contracts, only allowing position closing.
This protective measure was to:
- Prevent retail from entering without understanding delivery risks
- Prevent more speculators becoming “last bag holders”
- Protect brokers from client default risks
But at this point market only had:
- Existing speculators forced to close positions
- Few institutions with physical delivery capability
- Professional arbitrage traders
Result: sellers trapped in cage, while most potential buyers shut out.
QM’s Contagion Disaster: Cash Settlement Also Couldn’t Escape
Settlement Price Fatal Linkage
QM (E-mini Crude Oil Futures) although cash-settled, its settlement price directly linked to CL’s closing price.
When CL closed at -$37.63 on April 20, all cash-settled products linked to it also turned negative. This meant:
- QM long speculators not only lost all capital
- Also had to pay money to short side
- Even speculators who “just wanted to bet on prices” couldn’t escape physical delivery impact
Risk Transmission Domino Effect
This mechanism design exposed brutal reality: in commodity derivatives markets, no truly “pure financial products.”
All commodity futures price discovery mechanisms ultimately must return to physical delivery of underlying commodities. When physical markets faced extreme conditions, financial derivatives couldn’t remain unaffected.
Retail Slaughter Ground: Bloody Numbers Behind
Devastating Loss Per Contract
Let’s look at April 20 slaughter scale with cold numbers:
CL (Standard Light Crude Futures):
- Contract size: 1,000 barrels
- Day’s drop: from opening $17.73 to closing -$37.63
- Total drop: $55.36
- Single contract loss: $55,360 USD (about S$78,000)
QM (E-mini Light Crude Futures):
- Contract size: 500 barrels
- Single contract loss: $27,680 USD (about S$39,000)
This meant, if retail investor bought one CL contract at opening to “catch bottom,” by closing they not only lost all margin, but also had to pay about S$60,000 to futures broker.
Chinese Oil Treasure Disaster
Bank of China’s “Oil Treasure” product allowed retail to use leverage to hold WTI futures. When negative oil prices appeared, tens of thousands of Chinese retail investors not only lost principal, but also had to pay money to exit. According to Caixin Media reports, some investors lost up to hundreds of thousands of RMB, total losses estimated at tens of billions of RMB.
This wasn’t investment failure, this was institutional slaughter.
Institutions vs Retail: Why Rich Escaped, Poor Bled
Information Asymmetry Fatal Gap
Institutional investor advantages:
- Started rolling positions weeks in advance
- Deep understanding of delivery mechanisms and inventory data
- Professional risk management teams
- Direct connections to spot markets
Retail blind spots:
- Only watched price movements, didn’t understand delivery risks
- No timely inventory and demand data
- Lacked professional risk control mechanisms
- Thought futures were just “numbers game”
Last Trading Day Slaughter Mechanism
April 20 market participant structure:
| Time Period | Institution Positions | Retail Positions | Price Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early April | Heavy reduction | Continued adding | $20-30 |
| Mid April | Basically cleared | Continued bottom-fishing | $15-20 |
| April 20 | Almost zero | Forced liquidation | $18→-$40 |
Result: retail became only sellers, while market had insufficient buyers to take over.
System Design Flaws: Futures Market Design Blind Spots
Double-Edged Sword of Delivery Mechanism
Physical delivery original design was to:
- Prevent excessive speculation
- Ensure price discovery function
- Maintain spot-futures price convergence
But in extreme market conditions, this mechanism became:
- Death trap for speculators
- Price discovery distortor
- Systemic risk amplifier
Margin System Failure
Traditional margin system assumed prices wouldn’t fall below zero. When negative oil prices appeared:
- Risk models completely failed
- Margin calculations showed huge gaps
- Brokers faced client default risks
- Entire risk management system needed redesign
Survival Rules: How to Protect Yourself in Extreme Markets
Basic Understanding: Three Types of Futures Risks
- Price risk: losses from commodity price volatility
- Liquidity risk: losses from inability to close positions timely
- Delivery risk: losses from forced physical receipt
Most retail only saw first risk, but were killed by latter two.
Combat Protection Principles
Principle 1: Understand What You’re Trading
- Figure out cash settlement vs physical delivery
- Understand last trading day and delivery location
- Master fundamental factors affecting the commodity
Principle 2: Set Multi-Layer Stop Losses
- Price stops: prevent price risk
- Time stops: avoid delivery months
- Liquidity stops: exit before volume dries up
Principle 3: Never Go Full Position
- In extreme markets, anything can happen
- Keep cash for unexpected margin calls
- Diversify investments, avoid single commodity concentration
Principle 4: Follow Institution Money Flow
- Watch institutional fund movements
- Be alert when institutions massively retreat
- Don’t try to “pick up what institutions don’t want”
Conclusion: Dancing Around Shadows
April 20, 2020’s negative oil price event wasn’t accident, but inevitable.
When highly leveraged financial market met extreme real economy shock, all theoretical models could fail. Futures market’s price discovery function became price destruction mechanism in that moment, risk management tools became risk amplifiers.
The deepest lesson: futures were never gambling, but battlefield requiring deep professional knowledge. On this battlefield, information was weapon, experience was armor, and ignorance was death certificate.
What my colleagues and I witnessed wasn’t just oil price collapse, but collapse of many people’s understanding of financial markets. When sun rose again, survivors had to relearn this world’s game rules.
Desmond was right that night – we thought being financial hub meant something solid. But when we watch prices become negative, just like that, we realize we might have been dancing around shadows all along. Numbers without substance. Symbols without anchors.
In this city-state that built its dreams on being the perfect intermediary, the reliable node in global finance, we discovered that even the most sophisticated systems can unravel in minutes. Singapore had always sold itself as the safe harbor, the place where East meets West in orderly fashion. But that night, watching from our 49th floor perch, we learned that chaos doesn’t respect borders, regulations, or carefully crafted reputations.
The little red dot had just witnessed the impossible – and realized that in a globalized world, no one is truly insulated from the storm.
Because when next market disorder comes, history might not repeat, but rhythm remains familiar enough to be frightening.
The screens had stopped flickering, but in our heads, the numbers kept falling.
Risk Warning Derivatives trading involves high risks and may result in total capital loss. This article is for educational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.